Trade and warfare in cross-cultural perspective

Threat of natural disasters will be negatively related to warfare frequency in state societies

In opposite direction to the Ember and Ember (1992) finding for nonstate societies

Test
Test Name	Support	Significance	Coefficient	Tail
Spearman’s rank-order correlation	Supported	p<.05	-.77	`UNKNOWN`

Variables
Variable Name	Variable Type	OCM Term(s)
Unpredictable Natural Disasters	Independent	Disasters
Warfare Frequency	Dependent	Ingroup Antagonisms, Instigation Of War, War Veterans

Main Author	Published Year	Hypothesis	Supported	Variables Tested
Ember, Carol R.	1992	Controlling for mistrust in a multiple regression analysis, natural disasters are positively associated with overall warfare (254)	Supported	3	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Ember, Carol R.	1992	Controlling for natural disasters in a multiple regression analysis, mistrust is positively associated with overall warfare (254)	Supported	3	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Ember, Carol R.	1997	When included in a model testing the relationship between frequency of warfare, natrual disasters, and socialization for mistrust, food producing will be a significant predictor of frequency of warfare (11).	Not Supported	4	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Burtsev, Mikhail S.	2004	Threat of natural disasters will be negatively associated with frequency of warfare in state societies (32-35)	Supported	3	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Ember, Carol R.	2018	Adding three additional variables-little formalized leadership, natural disasters, and state-level organization- to the eastern African comparison would lead to a replication of the Ember et al. (1992) findings.	Supported	11	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author