Using Bayesian models incorporating 40,000 radiocarbon dates from 16 discrete human societies throughout history, this study attempts to identify patterns in human disaster-resilience, at the society level. On average, the study finds that societies that have experienced more catastrophes in the past tend to be more resilient in the face of new disasters, experiencing less severe impacts and quicker recoveries. The authors speculate that this may be due to social memory, as resiliency strategies tend to get passed down across generations. Meanwhile, the models also found that societies more reliant on farming and herding also tend to be more susceptible to crisis, but recover more quickly. Across the 16-society sample, which spanned all of human history, climate-related catastrophes stood out as the most common.

Using Bayesian models incorporating 40,000 radiocarbon dates from 16 discrete human societies throughout history, this study attempts to identify patterns in human disaster-resilience, at the society level. On average, the study finds that societies that have experienced more catastrophes in the past tend to be more resilient in the face of new disasters, experiencing less severe impacts and quicker recoveries. The authors speculate that this may be due to social memory, as resiliency strategies tend to get passed down across generations. Meanwhile, the models also found that societies more reliant on farming and herding also tend to be more susceptible to crisis, but recover more quickly. Across the 16-society sample, which spanned all of human history, climate-related catastrophes stood out as the most common.